Backing winners is only one part of the way to be being a successful punter. The key ingredient ignored by most backers is the concept of value. In other words you need to be able to assess the probability of whether or not a horse will win or lose, and be able to express those probabilities as a set of odds.

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A value bet is when the bookmakers odds or exchange prices exceed the true odds or true probability of a horse winning. In the long-run if you consistently back horses at odds of 11-10 and the true odds of the horse winning are more like even money (i.e. a 50:50 chance) then you will be making a profit because your average return on investment is greater than your probability of losing your stake.

 

In this example, if you make a 100 bets on horses that you think have a 50 per cent chance of winning then, assuming your assessment is reliable, then you would have had 50 winners and 50 losers. However, if you have bet every horse at odds of 11-10 then you would have lost 50 pounds on the 50 losers you had backed but won 55 pounds on the 50 winners, making a profit of 5 pounds or 5 per cent.

 

This all sounds very simple. However, the difficulty is being able to come up with an accurate set of odds (or probabilities that you can turn into an oddsline) for a race. People like Pricewise in the Racing Post are masters of this but they only do this for a few races per week, and the analysis is available to anyone who can afford the price of a Racing Post.

 

Our Valuator service (jump season edition) aims to provide a daily set of odds for every handicap hurdle and chase run in Great Britain and Ireland. The odds (expressed as decimal odds as on the betting exchanges) are our assessment of the 'true' odds of the horse winning or losing.

 

The oddsline is generated from a statistical analysis, using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, from horses past performance data. It also takes into account situational factors such as track, course going, and race distance. Overall there are dozens of factors that are taken into account, and each factor has been derived from our in-depth research and analysis. Much of the research that has gone into the Valuator formula is contained in the many articles published on this website. 

 

To take advantage of our unique Valuator tissue prices simply click this link to become one of our members.

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