Drawing-1 Join Now

Can you score with horses carrying a penalty?

By profitablebetting, Oct 21 2018 07:43AM

According to the very useful “Guide to handicapping” published by the British Horse Racing Authority the essence of handicapping is :

“...that the weight a horse carries ultimately affects the speed at which it can gallop. A handicap is a race where each horse is set to carry a weight, allocated according to the horse’s ability, in an attempt to equalise every horse’s chance of winning. Every time a horse runs in a race the performance is analysed by the ‘Handicapper’ and the horse (depending on various qualifying criteria) is allocated a rating. Every case is judged on its individual merits with the Handicapper taking into account all the pertinent variables such as the weight the horse carried in relation to other runners, the race distance, the ground, the draw (if a Flat race), the finishing margins between runners, the pace at which the race was run, the strength of the current form of the runners, and whether any incidents occurred that could have impeded one or more of the runners or exaggerated a horse’s performance. The ratings are expressed in imperial pounds and are based on the concept that all horses can be assessed on a numerical scale that enables their ability as a racehorse to be compared

to others”.

Horse's ratings are assessed once a week by the official handicappers of the British Horse Racing Authority (BHA). This creates an opportunity for the wily trainer because it is possible for a horse to race again off the same official handicap rating within seven days. It is perfectly possible that a trainer could exploit a horses ratings and get two or three wins in a week out of the horse because it is so well handicapped. To level out this advantage the BHA require a horse to run under a penalty three, five or seven pounds to cancel out any advantage that they might have. However, if a trainer thinks the horses ratings is going to go up by a lot more than seven pounds because it is improving and in its last race it won with plenty in hand then they will still exploit the advantage and run again even though the horse will have a penalty to carry.

Members can read more here...

Established in 2010, with scores of satisfied members, profitablebetting.co.uk aims to provide you with analysis, systems and strategies to help you make your racing pay. Our expert team adopt a systematic approach to betting and will provide you with systems, selections and information that will help to give you an edge. Join now for just £29.99 and receive a 12 month membership.



Our unique Pace Ratings allow you to understand how a race is likely to be run, and which horses are likely to take an early lead. These ratings will be of considerable value to those interested in 'betting-in-running' or 'in-play' markets as horses that take an early lead are likely to contract in odds during the early part of a race. Draw analyst will also wish to note well drawn horses that have a record of breaking well and establishing an early lead.


The ratings are only available from this site and can be viewed daily.



Drawing(3) Drawing(6) Drawing(9) Drawing(11)

You can receive a free newsletter of our research, analysis and betting systems by simply entering your details into the form below. We will then add you to our mailing list. You will then be kept up to date with our latest articles and features. You can also rest asssured that we won't pass your email address on to anyone else and you will only ever receive news from profitablebetting.  


We have created a number of betting systems that we developed and tested using our database of past horse racing results. Members can access and download our complete set of systems. We are also adding new systems all the time.



valuator logo and title

Our Valuator service aims to provide a daily set of odds for every handicap hurdle and chase run in Great Britain and Ireland. The odds are our assessment of the 'true' odds of the horse winning or losing.


The oddsline is generated from a statistical analysis, using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, from horses past performance data. It also takes into account situational factors such as track, course going, and race distance.





Our Jump-2-Profit service aims to provide value based winners for our members. It takes into account scores of form factors and uses sophisticated statistical techniques to combine them into a probability score. The probability score selects the horse in a race that has the greatest chance of winning but also provides an estimate of the odds that would represent the true odds for the horse winning the race. Therefore if you bet the horse at odds greater than the true odds of the horse winning then you will have made a value bet. A punter who bets in this way should, in the long run, do better than one that ignores the concept of value. It is making value bets that is the key to profitable betting.