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By profitablebetting, Oct 21 2018 07:43AM

According to the very useful “Guide to handicapping” published by the British Horse Racing Authority the essence of handicapping is :

“...that the weight a horse carries ultimately affects the speed at which it can gallop. A handicap is a race where each horse is set to carry a weight, allocated according to the horse’s ability, in an attempt to equalise every horse’s chance of winning. Every time a horse runs in a race the performance is analysed by the ‘Handicapper’ and the horse (depending on various qualifying criteria) is allocated a rating. Every case is judged on its individual merits with the Handicapper taking into account all the pertinent variables such as the weight the horse carried in relation to other runners, the race distance, the ground, the draw (if a Flat race), the finishing margins between runners, the pace at which the race was run, the strength of the current form of the runners, and whether any incidents occurred that could have impeded one or more of the runners or exaggerated a horse’s performance. The ratings are expressed in imperial pounds and are based on the concept that all horses can be assessed on a numerical scale that enables their ability as a racehorse to be compared

to others”.

Horse's ratings are assessed once a week by the official handicappers of the British Horse Racing Authority (BHA). This creates an opportunity for the wily trainer because it is possible for a horse to race again off the same official handicap rating within seven days. It is perfectly possible that a trainer could exploit a horses ratings and get two or three wins in a week out of the horse because it is so well handicapped. To level out this advantage the BHA require a horse to run under a penalty three, five or seven pounds to cancel out any advantage that they might have. However, if a trainer thinks the horses ratings is going to go up by a lot more than seven pounds because it is improving and in its last race it won with plenty in hand then they will still exploit the advantage and run again even though the horse will have a penalty to carry.

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By profitablebetting, Oct 21 2018 07:17AM

Punters that don’t have frequent access to inside information need to extract as much information as possible from the form book. One source of information that I think is under utilised by most backers is the comments in running’ quotes reproduced in the the form card. These comments are compiled by professional race readers and take the form of short summaries about a horse’s passage through a race. They therefore provide a rich source of qualitative information about how a race was run. They identify which horses made the running, were held up, ran on or stayed on at the finish and also highlight horses that, in the opinion of the race reader, won with a bit in hand.

One of the reasons why this information isn’t always used by punters is that it is hard to put a value on the comments because there hasn’t been any in-depth statistical analysis of whether or not certain comments are good at predicting future winners.

Fortunately with modern computers and limited knowledge of computer programming it is possible to pull out of the form book.

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By profitablebetting, Oct 21 2018 06:56AM

Autumn is in the air and it won’t be too long before the curtain falls on the flat season and attention will turn towards the winter game. It definitely pays to do some serious research on the form book, and to make a list of the top horses to follow ahead of the new season.

Here are our selections…

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By profitablebetting, Jun 16 2018 06:20AM

JP McManus is one of the biggest and most famous race horse owners in the country. His distinctive green-and-gold-hooped racing colours are known to most punters and will forever be associated with the exploits of the legendary Istabraq, a three-time winner of the Champion Hurdle. He has amassed himself a huge fortune as bookmaker and punter, and is one of the biggest owners in National Hunt racing.

I’m sure to his closest friends JP McManus gives plenty of sound betting advice but, despite being a generous fellow (he donates large sums to a number of charities) I’m not aware of him giving away any free tips, and I don’t think he needs to add to his fortune by setting up a telephone tipping line. However, while watching a race the other day, which included a couple of McManus owned runners, I wondered whether he was inadvertently giving a tip by running one horse in his first colours and the other horse in his second colours. After watching the horse in the McManus first colours win easily I started to think that maybe owners with multiple runners in a race are giving punters inside information by running one runner in their first colours and the lesser fancied runners in their second a third colours. Could owners choice of silks be some sort of semaphore system for picking winners?

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By profitablebetting, Apr 29 2018 02:35PM

Last year we didn’t too badly with our horses to follow on the flat. Enable and Cracksman were the pick of the ten that we put up

In terms of 2018 I think I’ll start with the obvious as I’ve slowly come to realise that it doesn’t pay to stray too far from the obvious when considering horses to follow as the biggest clues are to be found in the big races, and especially in the pattern races.

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